Nate Silver 538 Polls 2024. Should we trust polls campaigns leak to the press? Yesterday i wrote a long post on polling averages and political forecasts, focusing on the differences between fivethirtyeight, whose model gives each party a.

P olling analyst nate silver has said that a new poll confirms a shift in momentum from vice president kamala harris to former president donald trump in the presidential race. Harris is ahead by 3.8 points in our national poll tracker — up from 2.3 points the day before the democratic convention began — which does suggest some.